http://www.virtuallystrange.net/ufo/updates/2004/jun/m01-002.shtml

From: Brad Sparks <RB47x.nul>
Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 17:16:42 EDT
Fwd Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 00:37:43 -0400
Subject: Radar Targets May be Trucks On Yucatan Highway


Mexico: Some Radar Targets May be Trucks On Yucatan Highway 186

Radar Analysis Followup - Mexican AF Case March 5, 2004

Thanks to a new map plotted by Dr. Bruce Maccabee I can follow
up on my suggestion yesterday that some but not all of the radar
targets that were tracked may have been trucks or vehicles
traveling 60 mph (52 knots) down Yucatan roads.

In fact from 1715 to 1718 (CST) on March 5, 2004, there were one
or more such radar targets and they actually match the headings
of the roughly west-east Yucatan Highway 186 that the Mexican AF
C-26A aircraft flew over at 1718

The aircraft was heading almost due East, toward heading 81 degs
True, when the voice transcript shows the radar operator
reporting at about 1715 a radar target off to their right front
at about 1 o'clock position, 19 nautical miles away, traveling
52 knots (60 mph).

The target maintained that speed and approximate 1 o'clock
position from the aircraft but the aircraft closed in on it
reducing the distance - at about the exact rate one would
expect from a 200-knot speed of the aircraft.

This is when a crewman first makes the important and anxious
remark "That means we are surrounded?" (A similar remark is
repeated again about two minutes later.)

The radar data at this time seems to have nothing to do with the
FLIR infrared targets being imaged, and as we all know nothing
visually was ever seen, though one must keep in mind the
cloudiness of the area.

In fact, at about that approximate distance away from the
aircraft at that time interval the Highway 186 curves slightly
more eastward from about a 110 deg heading to about a 95-deg
heading, on the stretch between and just past halfway point from
Francisco Escarcega (Es Carcega on other maps) and Xpujil. The
radar target was plotted at a 99-deg heading at about 1717 (the
exact times are subject to maybe 1 minute of uncertainty because
they are not keyed to timings to the second on specific
statements).

The headings are a virtually exact match, if not an absolutely
exact match depending on where the truck or vehicle on the road
may have been located. If the truck or vehicle was on the slight
eastward bend on the road at the time it was radar tracked as
heading 99 degs then the road might indeed have been curved at
exactly 99 degs along that stretch. How much instrument error
one can expect on heading calculations on the APS-143 radar is
not known.

PORTION OF RADAR DATA
1714:58-1716:14: 1 o'clock, 19 nm, 52 knots
[Crewman: "That means we are surrounded?"]
1716:32-1718:23: 1 o'clock, 14.8 nm, 52 knots, heading 99 degs
           1 o'clock, 10 nm, 52 knots

Note that at the aircraft's speed its relative velocity with
respect to the target at truck-speed traveling in roughly
parallel directions was about 150 knots - that's the closure
rate, or about 2.5 nautical miles per minute. In two minutes
from roughly 1715 to 1717 the distance closed by 4.2 nautical
miles, exactly as we would expect, keeping in mind the times are
very fuzzy and only to within a minute on each end of the
interval. From 1717 or slightly before, to about 1718, or
slightly after, the target again travels about 4.8 nm as we
would expect.

However, these truck or vehicle targets on Highway 186 do not
explain the aircraft-velocity 334-knot radar tracking at 1650 or
1652 (time error or typo in transcript), the helicopter-velocity
106-knot target at 1645, nor do they explain the 2-3-mile
distant targets that seemed to maintain constant distance and
speed with the Mexican AF airplane. And the radar targets may
have nothing to do with the FLIR images, most of which were
above the earth's horizon (sorry no flying trucks!). But with
the Mexican plane's APS-143 radar, I have already previously
pointed out there seems to be something wrong with the equipment
in showing speeds and course headings inconsistent with the
actual relatively constant distance of "the object" (assuming it
is just one object or even an "object" at all and not some kind
of electronic radar ghost existing only in the equipment's
electronics).

Also, the APS-143 radar is designed as a maritime surveillance
radar. Maritime surveillance does not usually use MTI (moving
target indicator) to eliminate fairly slow 52-knot tagets, but
what settings were actually in place on the aircraft are not
known to me. I do not know how well the APS-143 does in its
target discrimination capability in what is effectively an air
combat defense role against highly maneuverable fighters or
'UFOs'. Ships do not typically move around at high speed or
maneuverability, changing places or positions with each other,
at least not at the split-second speeds of aerial fighter jets
or attack helicopters or 'UFOs'. Aerial combat requires a
higher degree of radar ability to maintain lock and continuity
on single targets so as to not confuse multiple targets as a
single target and wrongly "connect the dots" between such
unrelated targets.

Of course, if there were multiple targets flying around the
Mexican AF that would call for some kind of explanation, even if
the APS-143 radar system was confusing them and deriving
nonexistent rapid "maneuvers" by jumping from one target to
another. In that case maybe the targets were not actually
performing erratic maneuvers, the radar was connecting dots
wrongly and thinking there were, but again why would there be
such close multiple aerial targets flying around the Mexican AF
C-26A in the first place and why could they not be seen visually
in the daylight?

We do have to distinguish 'non-UFO behavior' in the radar
targets and FLIR images from the 'UFO behavior' targets, if any.
It would be strange if during a UFO incident all non-UFO targets
of all types suddenly disappeared or were not seen at all - we
of course expect that non-UFO targets will still be there,
depending on the situation. In ordinary UFO cases when witnesses
see a UFO their vision is not blacked-out all around the UFO so
that the UFO is all they see and the only thing they see! They
usually continue to see birds, planes, stars, sun, moon, clouds,
whatever, etc. In previous postings I mentioned some of the
anomalous behavior and indications that Maccabee has so far
found in his detailed analysis to date, more work is being done
and more may turn up.

A Mexican AF crewman who sees a genuine UFO might very well get
so excited that he cannot later on carefully distinguish the UFO
from the non-UFO as it unravels before him. We however can
analyze his data (if we have it) at our leisure and do the
research that he cannot do second by second while up there
flying. We have the luxury of being able to spend the time and
apply the resources that the aircrew cannot spend while in
flight or do not have access to on the plane.

Unfortunately, according to Maccabee there were no radar data
tapes, all we have is the in-flight voice recordings of what the
radar operator chose to verbalize, plus fragmentary impressions
of crew members interviewed weeks later when exact details would
not be (and are not) remembered very well. The crew should have
been interviewed immediately after the incident in post-flight
debriefing to get exact radar traget behavior recorded while
fresh in memory. Maybe the Mexican AF did that and has not
revealed the debriefing reports.

To sum up from this and previous posts: Some, but not all, of
the Mexican radar targets seem to be vehicle traffic on Yucatan
Highway 186. Some of the FLIR infrared images or "lights" as I
previously posted, may possibly be sun reflections off of
distant satellites in Molniya-type orbits (what I call the Group
2 images), satellites in medium-high polar orbits (Group 3 FLIR
images though a question might be raised as to feasibility of
extended duration of reflections from such faster-moving
satellites), and geostationary satellites (Group 4 images). All
of these Group 2, 3 and 4 FLIR images are above the earth's
horizon line according to the FLIR system data,.and in some
cases the actual horizon line can be seen, according to
Maccabee. What I call the Group 1 infrared images are the only
ones in the right direction and occurring below earth horizon as
to possibly be due to oil fire burnoff of the Cantarell oil
fields as first suggested by Capt. Franz (but Cantarell cannot
explain all the other FLIR images as Franz seems to think). Some
radar and FLIR targets remain anomalous.


Brad Sparks